Political analysts: Sabah snap polls won’t have an effect on next Sarawak state election

(From left) Dr Arnold Puyok, Prof Dr Jayum Jawan and Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

KUCHING: The Sabah snap elections will not have any bearing on the next Sarawak state election, said political scientist Prof Dr Jayum Jawan.

He opined that Sarawak has political stability while Sabah does not.

“No, it won’t have any bearing on Sarawak’s next election. The state government of Sabah was formed based on no majority because small parties came together and commanded a simple majority.

“In Sarawak, the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) is a dominant ruling party, with a huge majority. There is no political instability in Sarawak unlike the Federal ruling coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Sabah,” he told The Borneo Post.

Political analyst and senior lecturer in Politics and Government Studies Dr Arnold Puyok also was of the opinion that the Sabah election would not have bearing on the next Sarawak state election.

“Probably not so much (impact) because in Sabah you have two very dominant figures competing to be at the helm. There is none in Sarawak yet,” he said.

Another glaring difference between the two states is that there are many parties in Sabah led by popular figures who could emerged as alternatives to existing ones, he said.

“Also unlike Sarawak, Sabah politics is no longer ‘insulated’, it is more open, meaning more exposed to external forces from Semenanjung (Peninsular Malaysia),” he added.

Arnold, who is a Sabahan, also said the Sabah snap elections was a “means to end a political impasse”.

“I do not think it is necessarily good but that could be the only the way to end the turmoil temporarily – it is to make both parties satisfied, hopefully,” he said.

However socio-political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi opined that if Shafie wins the Sabah snap elections, the political momentum of Pakatan Harapan (PH) in Sarawak will increase and voters in Sarawak will be open minded or be more ready to accept PH.

Sabah votes are dictated by local issues, ethnicity, regionalism, money politic and culture of defection, he said.

Politics in Sarawak is more or less similar to that in Sabah but defection of elected representatives from one party to another is not a culture or less popular, said Awang Azman who is a university researcher in democracy and elections.

Yesterday (July 30), Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal announced the dissolution of the Sabah state assembly, paving the way for the state election to be held within 60 days, after the Yang Dipertua Negeri Tun Juhar Mahiruddin consented to his request.

Both Sabah Barisan Nasional (BN) and Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) along with its allies from Pakatan Harapan, won 29 seats apiece from the 60-seat State Assembly in the 14th General Election (GE14) on May 9 2018.

The two remaining seats were won by Parti Solidariti Rakyat Sabah (STAR).

However, on May 10, 2018 Sabah BN led by Tan Sri Musa Aman received the support of the two STAR assemblymen, thus obtaining a simple majority with 31 votes that allowed BN to form the government.

United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation (UPKO) then announced its withdrawal from BN but four UPKO assemblymen remained in support of Musa as chief minister.

Musa was sworn in as Sabah Chief Minister on May 11, 2018.

Six BN assemblymen subsequently left BN and joined Warisan, supporting Shafie who is Warisan president as chief minister.

Shafie was sworn in as the Sabah Chief Minister, 48 hours after Musa was sworn into office.

On May 13, 2018 the Istana Negeri of Sabah declared that Musa was no longer Sabah Chief Minister and on
May 16, 2018 Shafie announced his State Cabinet lineup with the inclusion of two nominated assemblymen, Tuaran MP Datuk Wilfred Madius Tangau, who is also UPKO president, and former Sandakan MP, the late Datuk Stephen Wong, who was the then Sabah DAP chairman.

Musa went on to take legal actio and on May 17, 2018 filed a writ requesting the court to declare him as the legitimate chief minister.

To strengthen his position last year, Shafie went on to nominate cabinet members Warisan secretary-general Loretto Padua Jr and treasurer Terence Siambun as well as Libaran PKR division chief Jaffari Waliam.

On Nov 7, 2018 the Kota Kinabalu High Court ruled that Shafie’s appointment as the new Sabah Chief Minister was in accordance with the Constitution, and is therefore the State’s rightful leader.

On Nov 29, 2019 the Kota Kinabalu Court of Appeals upheld the High Court’s decision and dismissed with costs Musa’s appeal.

After he was acquitted in June this year from all 46 criminal charges against him involving corruption and money laundering relating to timber concessions, Musa claimed to have obtained a simple majority to form the new state government through a coalition of several parties in the State.

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