A Pakatan Harapan supporter is seen at the DAP operation room in Ayer Keroh, Melaka, on November 7, 2021. – Malay Mail photo
VIEWPOINT: Sarawak opposition parties appear to be facing bleak prospects in the coming 12th state election with very few candidates expected to win the people’s mandate.
The Opposition’s dream of taking over the state government would seem unrealistic when they are weak and in disarray, and still squabbling barely a week to nomination day..
There are 82 seats up for grabs and one political analyst The Borneo Post spoke to believed that the Opposition might win five seats come polling on Dec 18.
Political scientist Professor Datuk Dr Jayum Jawan of Universiti Putra Malaysia does not see the Opposition reducing the two-thirds majority of Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), much less taking over the government.
Jayum has low expectations of the Opposition’s winning chances, saying they were too weak to dent GPS’ armour and the latter would return to power with its two-thirds majority intact.
He felt that the Opposition appeared to lack fresh election issues to draw voters and had walked into GPS’ ‘trap’ with the Malaysia Agreement 1963 and related issues on recognition of state rights.
“They have no history or achievement to show for, apart from lip service in harping on MA63 related issues.
“Although the gain by GPS is small and little — probably even nothing to brag about — but it is still better than the Opposition that are paying lip service by promising things beyond what they or any future state government can extract from the federal government.
“I expect Dap to suffer casualties, and SUPP to make gains. DAP did not do well while they were part of the PH government. I think their supporters will punish them for promising too much and delivering too little during the two years they were part of the federal government after 2018 GE.”
Jayum predicts that despite the bluster, Parti Sarawak Bersatu’s (PSB) plan of toppling GPS will be a non-starter as it is relatively a new kid on the block despite being led by high profile names whose political careers.
“It is a last attempt by them to salvage their political careers, and voters will not be looking at what they promised but what they have done while they were in government,” predicted Jayum
Anticipating a washout for independent candidates and those from marginal parties such as Parti Bumi Kenyalang, Sarawak People’s Aspiration Party (Aspirasi) and PBDS Baru, Jayum said they would be lucky if they can retain their election deposit as they lacked firm ideas and ideologies of other established political parties.
Another political analyst, Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi, felt the Opposition parties could probably win as little as five seats in the face of GPS’ reach in villages and longhouses, where there will almost certainly be some inhouse campaigning among residents.
Awang Azman, an associate professor at Universiti Malaya (UM), said the campaign restrictions were stacked against the Opposition where its main weapon and megaphone campaign strategy is blunted.
“Inhouse ceramahs in kampungs and longhouses which are allowed during the campaign would be like a carpet bombing advantage for GPS to win,” said Awang Azman.
“The Opposition can probably win only five seats under such a scenario if campaign SOP (standard operating procedures) disallow ceramah, walk-abouts and house-to-house campaigns.
“However, if there is co-operation between Parti Sarawak Bersatu and Pakatan Harapan, the maximum seats it can win could be 23 to 25 seats but this would be subject to compromise and there seems to be some signs that it may happen.”
Awang Azman believed that Opposition big guns such as Parti Keadilan Rakyat president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang would even be hamstrung on the campaign trail.
“The Election Commission’s SOP in the Melaka election also stipulated that those who are non-residents of a constituency were disallowed and GPS will press its advantage to the hilt with its report card on Bantuan Khas Sarawakku Sayang (BKSS), food baskets and in delivering critical infrastructures and amenities.”
Awang Azman felt that the Opposition’s chances could improve depending on their campaign issues; and if GPS can prevent its internal disagreements over seats from blowing up, which could lead to protest votes or sabotage.
At the same time, GPS could lose votes if some candidates are seen to have overstayed their welcome after being an elected representative for years.
“The seat wrangling among GPS in Dudong, Pakan, Mambong, Opar and Bawang Assan, if not handled wisely, could give rise to protest or sabotage among component parties.
“PH victory depends a lot also on the risk of internal GPS squabble as both PH and PSB campaigns would be very much curtailed and limited,” said Azman Awang
DAP’s main campaign strategy of ceramah in towns and villages would appear to be crippled and it could only depend on social media where impact is still suspect. This was clearly seen in the preceding Melaka state election.
from Borneo Post Online https://ift.tt/3CT8fV2
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