File photo shows political party flags.
KUCHING (Dec 17): A political scientist has predicted that the majority of Malays, Melanaus and Kedayans will vote for Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) while the Dayaks will continue to be divided as they have in many previous elections.
The division of the Dayaks is because Dayak-majority seats are being distributed across PBB, Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) and Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), said Prof Datuk Dr Jayum Jawan, who is attached to Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) in Bintulu.
The four parties make up Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) coalition government.
“Divided Dayak voters and seats are advantageous to PBB to reclaim leadership and the Chief Minister position each time and every time elections are called.
“This time, the situation is no different,” Jayum said when asked on how Sarawakians would vote in this 12th State Election.
The Chinese on the other hand will continue to be divided between SUPP and Democratic Action Party (DAP), he predicted.
“In this 2021 election, PDP is now in play to draw Chinese support as well,” he said, referring to PDP president and Bintulu MP Datuk Seri Tiong King Sing’s move to stand as the GPS candidate in the state seat of Dudong.
He described Tiong’s GPS candidacy as the first major successful move of PDP into Chinese-majority areas by pulling Dudong to its side under the nose of SUPP.
Generally, however, voters will consider party first, when casting their votes and this is true in respect of the Malays, Melanaus and Kedayans, he said.
Individuals or candidates matter for some, especially the Dayak voters, whereas the Chinese voters will be having mixed considerations of either parties or candidates, he added.
Jayum predicted that GPS will not be winning this election with a clean sweep.
“Oh my God, I pray that they (GPS) do not sweep the 82 seats. That would be bad for democracy. That would make GPS and its leaders arrogant and they would not listen to the voices and plights of the people.
“If it is up to me, a simple majority would suffice for any party to rule in Sarawak and also at federal level.”
Jayum believed a simple majority would ensure good governance, responsible leadership, and promote transparency because such a ruling party would need to reach out to other parties in order to build a working relationship.
“PBB can sweep clean the Malay and Melanau seats but not the Dayak seats they are contesting. PBB’s partners in GPS – PRS, SUPP and PDP – are not expected to perform as well as PBB,” he added.
He also predicted one of the new parties, Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB), will not be making an impact in this election.
PSB would win some seats but not enough to take over the ruling of Sarawak government, he said.
“PSB president Dato Sri Wong Soon Koh may win and so will a few of PSB heavyweights but that is as much as PSB would fare.”
On another matter, Jayum said the campaign condition set by tight standard operating procedures (SOP) due to Covid-19 is “lopsided and favouring the former ruling party GPS.”
“GPS also has the advantage of office, a well-greased machinery, and also an extensive network that has been established for over many decades,” he added.
The disadvantage will be on new candidates who are not familiar to the voters from all political parties or coalitions, he pointed out.
“The short period of less than two weeks for campaigning does not help candidates much especially those who have wider areas to cover, like rural constituencies where internet coverage is not available or stable,” he said.
Meanwhile, political observer Dr Charlie Dudang said GPS could win this 12th state election with a two-thirds majority.
He believes PBB may win all of its allocated 47 seats while PRS may secure nine or 10 of its 11 seats; and PDP may win all six seats contested.
For the opposition, he thinks PSB may only win “only two to three” seat while the rest of the opposition, with the exception of DAP, as well as Independent candidates may not win any with some even losing their deposit.
“PSB will give GPS a good fight as some of their candidates have all the necessary experience in strategising campaign activities.
“However, PSB in trying to only highlight the weaknesses of GPS and its candidates, and areas lacking development may not attract matured voters. Matured voters wouldn’t fall for tactics undermining peace and harmony,” he said.
Charlie also predicted that there will be a wind of change favouring SUPP in most Chinese-dominant urban seats.
“The Malays and Melanaus would vote for GPS but the Ibans – divided.
“Candidates’ personality and credibility are still the selling points in Dayak and Iban-dominant areas but the majority of them will opt for long-term development,” he said.
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