‘A dangerous precedent’

Photo taken on Feb 28 shows the UN Security Council meeting taking place at the UN headquarters in New York. — AFP photo

IN connection with International Women’s Day, let’s pray for the safety of those Ukraine women and their daughters – both staying put to fight the Russian invaders, as well as those fleeing to neighbouring countries to seek refuge.

To reinstate empire 

Many political analysts are wondering whether it was absolutely necessary for Russia to invade an independent Ukraine when both countries could have been linked in a functional federation after the break-up of the Russian Federation in 1991.

Instead, for the past eight years, they have been fighting – the Ukrainians fighting for freedom to be left alone and to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) while Russia, under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, has been against Ukraine joining that military alliance.

It didn’t help matters, where, in the Donbas region, Russia has been siding with the Russian- speaking separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk. And to add insult to injury, Putin has recently recognised Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states – allied to Russia, of course.

The former KGB agent, now the President of Russia, is obviously an irredentist. While no one ostracises him for being a nationalist, many condemn him for attacking another sovereign state.

Ukraine (population 44 million) is endowed with vast land and abundant resources. A lot of military arsenal was placed there during the Soviet and Federation days.

Russia would not allow Ukraine to be pro-West because that would lead to Ukraine joining the European Union (EU) and Nato; the military alliance with Ukraine in there poses a security threat to Russia itself, Putin’s nightmare.

At the same time, EU and its allies see Ukraine as another European nation and a buffer state, crucial to the security of all Europe in the event of any military conflict with Russia. Like a beautiful girl courted by two ardent lovers, impossible to please!

In the fight for hegemony over Ukraine, the country will be chopped off into two chunks of territories with opposing stances (Ukrainians in the west pro-West, those in the east, pro-Russia).

In fact, despite public declarations of peace, both Russia and the Nato countries have been preparing for war for years, beginning with the Cold War and ending now with the ‘not so cold war’, starting with Ukraine. When in 2014 Russia annexed Crimea, a piece of Ukraine, Nato countries and allies were helplessly watching and asking themselves: “What next?”

While I can see Putin’s point with regard to his scheme of restoring the ‘Old Russia’, I don’t approve of his way of getting many people killed and many cities destroyed in the process – an act that looks like a crime against humanity.

He should have chosen diplomacy instead of guns.

Easier said than done.

In terms of outgunning the Ukrainians, he may win at a terrible cost, unless Nato countries and allies could come to the rescue of Ukraine on time.

On the economic front, he may have miscalculated. I refer to the restrictions to Russia’s access to financial markets across the world as the results of trade sanctions, especially the effects of the exclusion of major Russian banks from the Society of Worldwide Inter-Bank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). These sanctions could prove to be Putin’s ‘Achilles’ heels’, unless he had earlier made adequate arrangements with its trading partners on an alternative system of payments; for instance, with China and his other allies.

Third front

As the sanctions by Nato member countries begin to impact on the Russian economy, the ordinary people there will feel the pinch. He must have foreseen this and is fully prepared to deal with internal insurgency. That means that Putin may be fighting on several fronts.

Hey, who am I to tell a former KGB agent that he has made a wrong move in Ukraine?

Still, I dare say that his invasion of a sovereign nation during his presidency is a dangerous precedent. Why? It gives ideas to the countries that were once colonial masters.

Taking the cue from him, it would be possible, in theory, for Great Britain to invade India or Malaysia, or for the Netherlands to attack Indonesia (not that it did not try to continue ruling Indonesia after the Pacific War, but failed), or for France to attack Vietnam, or for Spain or even for USA to invade the Philippines – so on and so forth.

It is insane to think of all these hypothetical scenarios, but we are seeing madness of war in Europe today. You cannot imagine that this thing could happen in this 21st century, but it is happening in the 21st century — in Ukraine.

And what about the elephant in the room: China invading Taiwan?

I dread to imagine the terrible consequences for many countries, especially those in the Indo-Pacific region, if that happened.

It is significant that when a vote was taken at the meeting of the United Nations (UN)’s Security Council last week, China had abstained from voting for the motion to condemn the Russian invasion.

Reason: China does not interfere with the affairs of independent countries.

I can see China’s uncomfortable position, a dilemma, if you like: to use the Ukraine template, or not to use it. We shall see.

Meanwhile, my prayer is that all the irredentists of the world would not become so obsessed with reinstating the empires long gone. They should rather think in terms of living and working on the basis of peaceful co-existence with their former colonies or even former enemies – like Japan and USA are doing; of trading peacefully with each other for mutual economic benefits.

Role of UN

At times like these, one turns to the UN for help in preventing wars. The organisation was created out of World War II for the very purpose of preventing another war, or wars, after 1945. Unfortunately, the Security Council of the UN has become ‘a big powers’ club’. One would expect the Council armed with powers to deal with matters of war and peace, to unanimously condemn the Russian invasion.

But Russia vetoed that motion. Now it’s up to the UN General Assembly to pass similar motion, but the decision of the Assembly is not binding on any member country.

In this sense, the UN is ‘toothless’.

Other than the UN, is there another world body good enough to stop the war in Ukraine? Or are we waiting for only the surrender by one party?

Nuclear threat  

More lives would be lost and cities destroyed if the threat by Russia of the use of nuclear weapons were to be carried out. If Europe is in flames, there is no guarantee that the fire may not spread to other parts of the world, including this region, sooner or later.

God forbid!

Why should we, in Malaysia, so far away from the theatre of war, be worried?

One war may lead to another, that’s why.

* Comments can reach the writer via columnists@theborneopost.com.

from Borneo Post Online https://bit.ly/3pIYncH
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