Flags of political parties pictured along Jalan Gombak Lama for the Gombak parliamentary seat in Kuala Lumpur, November 9, 2022. — Bernama photo
KUCHING (Nov 17): Political analysts interviewed at random have predicted that none of the four major blocs contesting in this parliamentary election (GE15) will be an outright winner.
These four are Barisan Nasional (BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA).
Of the total number of 945 candidates for the parliamentary seats, PH has fielded the most number of candidates at 206, followed by BN (178), PN (149) and GTA (116). The rest are fielded by other smaller coalitions, individual parties and independents.
Political analyst from the Pacific Research Centre, Dr Ei Sun Oh, even went on to say that the PH may be facing great difficulty in wresting Putrajaya from the caretaker coalition government made up of mainly BN and PN.
If PH could not secure a simple majority on its own, it may face a daunting task in post-election to initiate a new alliance because other coalitions, especially the Malay-dominant ones, do not want to be associated with its (PH) partner, the Democratic Action Party (DAP), he opined.
Dr Ei Sun Oh
“I can only say if PH cannot win an outright parliamentary majority, the Malay-Muslim deep state would do their best to ensure that it could not form a coalition to be the next government,” Dr Ei said when contacted today.
“It is quite possible that we might not see a single coalition getting more than half the seats (post-GE15).
“Any sort of coalition that does not include PH is possible, as Malay-Muslim elite sees PH as a threat to their special position and privileges,” he said.
When asked if PH would likely drop or offload DAP from PH, Dr Ei said: “It is likely that DAP will win the most seats in PH, how to drop?”
Political scientist Prof Datuk Dr Jayum Jawan predicted that the PH coalition will likely get the largest number of seats compared to the PN or BN.
“I have reservations on whether they will surpass the 112 mark needed to be declared as a coalition that has a simple majority of at least one seat.
“But getting more seats compared individually to PN or BN does not give PH the first right to seek to form the government by reaching out to potential allies.
“It is a coalition that is able to pull in enough seats, surpassing 112 that will be seen as the right coalition to be called upon to form the federal government,” said the Professor of political science at Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) and Fellow of Academy of Sciences Malaysia.
“So, PH can win as many as 90 seats, and this would not be the basis of forming a coalition government. It is any party that can show it has the support of 112 members in parliament,” Jayum added.
Prof Datuk Dr Jayum Jawan
When asked if there would be a hung parliament post-election, Jayum said: “Yes, definitely. None of the three political blocs can win 112 or more seats to form the federal government on its own.”
PH has reached its limit in terms of the number of seats it can win, mainly for its components Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) from the Malay heartland, and Chinese urban seats through the DAP.
“Therefore, there are no more seats to win for the partners,” he said.
Jayum believed that PKR is also hard pressed to win more Malay rural seats that are conservative, who are “easily frightened by their politicians of Chinese intention who must be stopped”.
So the rural Malays will give their support to either BN-Umno or PN-Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), with scathingly few to other smaller Malay parties such as GTA-Pejuang, Jayum added.
“It would be interesting if Umno can retain the number of its former seats won in 2018 due to many issues that have damaged the party recently that also saw its leaders jailed and some still being prosecuted for many alleged wrongdoings,” he said.
Also, the present caretaker coalition may return as it is, he said.
“That is a possible derangement, it worked for the last 18 months or so. I don’t see why not. The only issues will be, will it be led by Bersatu, meaning the Prime Minister (PM) is from Bersatu? Or will it be led by BN, meaning the PM is from Umno?”
A PH-led coalition looks less likely unless it wins outright 112 seats, he said.
“Sarawak via Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) has made it clear that it won’t support a PH-led government because of DAP’s presence in the PH coalition.
“So, that’s a substantial 25 or 26 (GPS) seats that PH will miss out, and therefore it has to compensate from other sources,” Jayum said.
Another political analyst from Universiti Malaya, Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi, believed Malaysians would probably see a unity government if the formation of a simple majority alliance would be so difficult to do.
“If any of the three blocs failed to get the 112 seats mark, a hung parliament will happen, but this is not necessarily a negative thing. On the contrary, it may bring forth a new era of grand coalition government after GE15.
“The formation of a unity government of PH, BN, GPS, GRS (Gabungan Rakyat Sabah) and Warisan is a possibility. The grand coalition is not impossible provided PH and BN win big with many seats. There are neither permanent enemies nor friends in politics,” he said.
Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi
Another possibility, Awang Azman said, is the grand coalition of BN, PN, PAS, GPS, GRS and Warisan, provided BN controls it by having the most number of seats while Bersatu, a component of PN, the least number of seats.
He could not see GTA making a big impact during and post-GE15.
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